The Adventures of Ant-Man...

Ant-Man Grows Up

Sometimes, superstardom develops slowly and then arrives all at once. 

Ever since Anthony Edwards was drafted first overall in 2020, superstardom has been the expectation, as it is for all #1 picks. When it goes well, the player walks a well-trodden path from rising stardom to stardom, taking his place among the best players in the league. But when it goes very well, the player takes an extra step towards not only becoming an All-Star but a generation-defining superstar. 

Anthony Edwards made his second All-Star Game appearance this season, but in recent months, his play has been insistent: his star will shine even brighter than expected.

You might point to a game-saving block on March 7th as a turning point in the Edwards conversation. In that moment, he entered the mainstream sports fan’s consciousness as a severe problem facing the NBA’s best for years to come. The play married a unique combination of athletic gifts, anticipation, and dogged competitiveness that few possess. But it wasn’t a lone highlight that fades from memory shortly after the hour rolls over and a new episode of SportsCenter begins. Instead, it was a mere beginning to a persistently and emphatically issued message: Anthony Edwards is the future of the NBA, and the future is now. 

Collectible markets have demonstrated an elevated appreciation for Edwards over the last two months, supporting the thesis that the perception of his stardom has changed. Since March 7th, the Anthony Edwards player index on CardLadder is up an astonishing 58.5%. Let's contextualize that massive number. 

His PSA 10 2020 Prizm base card - a lower-end example that trades frequently - hovered predominantly beneath $100 in late February and early March. In recent weeks, it frequently landed in the high $100 range, and in the last few days, several eBay lots have closed above $300. The increase in values comes despite an increase in population. Since the beginning of the year, the card's population is up 16%, reaching 8,630 per data from GemRate. That growth outpaces the broader 2020 Prizm set, which has grown 12%. 

The high end of the market is similarly responding in kind, playing a significant role in fueling overall index performance. Last weekend at Goldin, a National Treasures Rookie Patch Autograph, graded BGS 9.5, sold for $85,550. That’s the first time a BGS 9.5 version of that card has sold since this time last year when one changed hands for only $42,000. 

Also last weekend, a PSA 9 sold via Best Offer on eBay for $50,000. Another PSA 9 sold for $29,588 in April, and in March of 2023, one traded for a more modest $18,000.

In a moment when ultra-modern patch cards are out of vogue relative to their grail status in 2021 and 2022, Edwards is bucking the trend and returning his card values to the levels attained during those brighter days. In this market, that's significant.

In the last two months, Edwards cards have amassed $3.7 million in sales volume on eBay. That’s 55% of his volume for the entire year of 2023, attained in just two months. The average price point is also 13% higher over those two months than it was in 2023.

Whether Prizms or patches, impressive appreciation in April intensified into unbridled enthusiasm in the first days of May. Collectors are often disappointed when a superstar’s exceptional, on-court performance fails to ignite card values. However, in more ebullient market environments than today’s, a superstar’s future accomplishments were often priced in. Their card values were difficult to rationalize when comparing resumes to more established Hall-of-Famers with similar or lower card values. 

But this isn't a simple case of exceptional performance.

Edwards’ arrival to this stature this season was unexpected. When a player eviscerates the Suns, smiling and trash-talking through it all, the thesis changes. When semi-credible comparisons to Michael Jordan (to the extent those comparisons can ever be credible) litter social media and ESPN or TNT airwaves, the thesis changes. The reaction to Edwards is to an icon in the making. But as prices rise explosively, so does the bar he must clear to justify them. The stakes aren’t what they were two months ago.

And Edwards isn’t just a phenomenon of the card world. 

Alongside that National Treasures card at Goldin, a jersey from the fourth game of his NBA career sold for $118,978 after 52 bids. A month earlier, a jersey from his third career game sold for $65,880 after 34 bids. Or turn the clock back to October 2021 when the very same jersey that sold at Goldin last weekend sold for a mere $8,400. That's the difference between rising stardom and superstardom, amplified by a more active game-worn market. 

Like the collector who bought the Edwards jersey in 2021, Adidas must be ecstatic with its star endorser. Some circles of the sneaker community would consider Edwards’ first signature sneaker, the AE1, the sneaker of the year. Edwards is the centerpiece of a reinvigorated Adidas basketball offering, and his on-court play has reinforced the appeal of the sneaker’s fresh design language. Adidas management specifically highlighted the AE1 on a recent earnings call as a bright spot in North America, and the response to the sneaker has encouraged the brand to proceed with additional colorways.

The AE1 was warmly received upon its initial release, but the velocity of sell-through has accelerated since, and resale prices have responded. For those colorways released more than two months ago, resale prices are up 39% on average (men’s size 10.5) since early March. Like the card market, the sneaker market is beset by sluggish demand and declining values, so a surge in appetite for a model that wasn’t initially a resale hit is telling.

For both the card and sneaker markets, the sharp rise in Edwards interest is a promising indication that enthusiasm and optimism still exist. It may further signal that the underlying forces are present to return those markets to growth. Conversely, in the shadow of recent exuberance looms the menacing threat that the market has not learned its lesson. Many stars have briefly blinded with their shine before receding into the relative anonymity of more pedestrian stardom. Edwards may well become an icon, but collectors can’t will it into early existence by paying exorbitant prices for his collectibles today.

Still, when the story - and the personality - is strong enough, collectors will react accordingly. Anthony Edwards rising to the sport's biggest occasions with brash confidence and brazen competitive intensity is just the story many have been waiting for.

Stocks, Bonds, Crypto, and Collectibles

It’s the modern portfolio, and advisors are taking note.

Well, some are. Those who aren’t might be left behind.

Repeated surveys consistently reveal a compelling trend: the emerging generations are avid collectors with a keen interest in having their collections appropriately valued, with proper portfolio planning in place.

Another sign of the times: Next week, Altan Insights will be presenting at Wealth Management EDGE, an annual conference attended by more than 2,000 wealth managers and advisors who combine to manage approximately $17 trillion in assets.

The title of the presentation: Collectibles: Investment, passion, or both?

Whether a collector views their art or memorabilia as an investment or simply a passion pursuit, it’s time for their advisors to acknowledge the value and appreciation collectibles can achieve.

In a survey of the market completely by Deloitte and ArtTactic, 89% of collectors and their private wealth managers believe that collectible wealth planning should be part of a wealth management offering. With valuations on the rise and the art-secured lending market nearing $30 billion, demand for data and services tailored to the collectibles industry has never been higher.

Howard Epstein, who worked as an advisor at Merrill Lynch and Wells Fargo, authored a white paper in 2020-2021 titled The Sports Memorabilia Market & Wealth Management.

In the paper, Epstein wrote, “More than ever before, high-net-worth individuals are investing in or inheriting collections... with few exceptions, these clients have little knowledge of where to turn for help when it comes time to liquidate and monetize their collections.”

That exact problem was the one staring down Tom Ruggie, a financial professional and avid sports memorabilia collector.

In addition to curating a museum-worthy display of fight-worn boxing trunks, game-used baseball bats, and original sports art. Ruggie runs Destiny Wealth Partners which includes a wealth management firm, family office, trust company, and a pair of investment funds. The lack of collectibles knowledge and expertise within the financial services industry led Ruggie to develop a resource guide and 10-step Scorecard that addresses ways to track, value, insure, and integrate one’s collection into an estate plan.

When asked about the changes needed in the financial advising industry to better support expertise in art and collectibles planning, Ruggie highlights the importance of recognizing the intersection between passion and investment.

"Financial advisors need to understand not only have collectibles performed well financially, especially in the past 5-10 years, but for many collectors, these assets are a sizable portion of someone’s estate... collectibles have crossed the threshold of not just being a hobby, but truly being an investment asset, and potentially even an asset class.”

So, why are many advisors and estate planners overlooking the art and collectibles that are increasingly comprising a larger portion of their clients' net worth?

Epstein explained that “It takes top-down organizational buy-in from the firm to engage experts and make the investment in resources on an ongoing basis to assist advisors with these matters as they arise.”

While wealth managers have been slow to adopt strategies that fit the needs of their collecting clients, millennials might be the demographic that forces a change.

In a poll by US Trust, 72% of millennials consider themselves collectors, up from less than 50% found across all previous generations. More specifically, 33% of millennial art collectors view their art as a financial asset. If 1/3rd seems low, understand that it’s 2x higher than any previous generation.

For modern categories, that percentage is even higher. According to a survey commissioned by cllct and conducted by Seton Hall Sports Poll, 46% of the general population, not just collectors, consider sports memorabilia to be a financial investment. That number scales to 53% across 18-to 34-year-olds who were surveyed.

Darren Rovell, the founder of cllct, predicts that it’s only going higher.

With a continued emphasis through social media and influencers on the money side of collecting, Rovell estimates that within 10 years, at least 80% of the 18-to 34-year-old demographic will believe their collections are investments. Whether or not those more speculative collections will merit inclusion in portfolio management and estate planning remains to be seen.

We won’t belabor the point, but how about some stats on the Anthony Edwards jersey that sold at Goldin? A $118,978 result is a 1,316% improvement over the $8,400 October 2021 sale, and the jersey appreciated at an annual rate of 78%. Net of buyer’s premium, those figures shrink to 1,061% and 58% respectively.

Typically, it would take an upgrade in authentication to unlock those types of results over such a short period, but in this case, the same MeiGray photomatch presided over both sales. The difference in prices realized is the difference between Anthony Edwards, potential future star, and Anthony Edwards, superstar.

Without question, vintage sports cards have outperformed their modern counterparts in aggregate since the peak of the market back in 2021. But that doesn’t mean all vintage cards - iconic ones included - have carried along unbothered since then.

Take Mickey Mantle’s 1953 Topps issue, for example - the sequel to the now renowned ‘52 edition. That card in a PSA 8 has a population of 95, compared to 1952 PSA 8s which are limited in population to just 35. In the last two years, the 1953 card has sold 8 times, with mixed but mostly declining results. And the decline continues.

Last weekend, Memory Lane sold a PSA 8 for $79,598. That exact card last sold at REA in December of 2021 for $105,000. Gross of fees, that’s a loss of 24% or 11% annually. If you net out buyer’s premium, the loss swells to 37% total and 17% annually.

Vintage may have offered superior protection through the market tumult to date, but its components are far from immune to dreadful returns over the last few years.