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- Guitars are Getting CT Scans Now
Guitars are Getting CT Scans Now
No medical issues found, but authenticity verified?
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Welcome to Alts & Ends, your lively guide to collectible market happenings. In this action-packed edition, we examine massive guitar sales, sneakers fitting snugly at auction, huge card grading growth, and eyebrows raised by irrevocable bids in game-worn memorabilia.
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Guitar Prices in the Clouds
Bidders weren’t hiding their love away for John Lennon’s acoustic guitar at Julien’s last week. The Framus Hootenanny guitar, used by Lennon and George Harrison in recording sessions for Help! and Rubber Store, as well as by Lennon in the movie Help!, sold for $2,857,500. The result was multiples of the $600,000 to $800,000 estimate and ranks as the fifth most expensive guitar sale of all time.
Resetting the rankings: Lennon guitars now sit fifth and seventh among the most expensive guitars of all time. Guitars sold by Julien’s now account for three of the top five sales and five of the top ten.
Recapping the setlist: what else sold? Julien’s sold nine guitars for six figures or more, including Prince’s Yellow Cloud 3 guitar, which sold for a Prince record of $910,000 (est. $400,000 - $600,000). The house used CT scans to understand the guitar’s construction and prove its authenticity with verification from the luthier that built it. Or, as the ever-eloquent Billy Bob from Varsity Blues would’ve put it, they scanned that guitar’s cat. Thorough and non-invasive, kudos for creativity.
Some context: Julien’s recorded fifteen six-figure instrument auction sales in all of 2023, so a flurry of nine such sales in one event is significant.
Concert-worn. Outside of instruments, Michael Jackson’s sequined blazer from the Victory tour sold for $114,300, with authentication from MEARS and provenance to the Grammy Museum. If only it could be photomatched…
Big picture. Julien’s sold over $10 million in the Music Icons event in total. Last year’s Music Icons event totaled just $4.8 million, $5.6 million if you include proceeds from a concurrent Janet Jackson sale. The $10 million total is the second highest of any Julien’s event, trailing only Music Icons 2022, when Kurt Cobain’s “Smells Like Teen Spirit” Fender Mustang sold for $4.55 million to become the second most expensive guitar ever.
The outro: This was a strong demonstration of the continued depth and breadth of high-end music memorabilia appetite.
Photo: RM Sotheby’s
Jordan Sneakers on Ferrari Pedals
Even a decade ago, the idea of sneakers crossing the auction block at Sotheby’s and Christie’s would’ve been difficult to imagine. It would’ve been even harder to imagine the hammer falling on a rare pair of Jordan 4s immediately after it signaled the sale of $4 million Lamborghinis and Ferraris. But that inconceivable dream came to fruition at RM Sotheby’s last week.
What happened? Canadian entrepreneur Miles Nadal auctioned a significant portion of his Dare to Dream Collection. The collection spans classic cars, sports and racing memorabilia, and - yes - sneakers.
Why does it matter? Top-tier auction houses have strategically shaped their offerings around the notion that the collecting pursuits of high-end collectors are changing and diversifying. Nadal’s collection is proof of that theory. For some collectors, more contemporary assets like sneakers foster as much enthusiasm and passion as more traditional vehicles (pun intended) like cars.
Key stat: Last year, Art Basel and UBS conducted a survey of high-net-worth art collectors. 38% of those art collectors reported purchasing collectible sneakers.
How did it go? The collection was broken into three events, but the premier event featured 50 sneaker lots which combined to sell for $1.27 million. For context, 16 cars sold for more than that sum on their own. We say that not to pour cold water on some fire kicks, but to acknowledge that auction houses view categories like sneakers as gateway items: they attract new bidders who might one day bid on bigger ticket items. Still, $1.27 million in sneaker sales in one auction event verges on levels unimaginable a decade ago.
Shoot for the moon. The top-selling sneakers were the Nike Moon Shoe Prototypes, which sold for $306,000. The shoes were designed by Bill Bowerman and hand-cobbled in a small batch by Geoff Hollister, effectively giving birth to Nike’s famed waffle sole. This unworn pair last sold for $437,500 in 2019, becoming the most expensive sneaker ever sold at the time. It wasn’t the only former record holder to suffer this weekend. Michael Jordan’s “Shattered Backboard” Air Jordan 1s sold for $444,080 at Goldin. Those too were once the most expensive sneakers ever sold, fetching $615,000 at Christie’s in 2020 before a fractional stint on Otis and then Public.
High-end sneakers are down too, huh? Like many categories that flourished in 2021 and early 2022, many high-end, collectible sneakers have struggled in the years that followed. Sneaker-specific events have seen significant inventory go unsold, and the Dare to Dream event was littered with pairs selling for less than in 2021 and 2022. For instance:
The Nike x Louis Vuitton Air Force 1 sold for $85,200. Pairs in the same size sold for as much as $189,000 at the original Sotheby’s event in February 2022.
The Eminem “Encore” Jordan 4 sold for $30,000, whereas 2021 sales crossed $50,000.
“Undefeated” and “Cactus Jack” Jordan 4s were down 25-35% from late 2022 levels.
It’s not all bad. Think, McFly! The 2016 Nike MAG - that’s the self-lacing version of the Back to the Future 2 sneaker - sold for $66,000, largely in line with historical results. In fact, even the more affordable 2011 version (pffft, it doesn’t even self-lace) sold for $20,400. A special retro pack of Jordan 8s and Jordan 3s in Lakers colors, a nod to Kobe’s sneaker free agency, produced a strong $26,400 result.
Key takeaway: Values have fallen, but not off a cliff. Sneakers continue to prove their merit on the high-end auction block. Nadal will not be the last collector to dabble in seven-figure cars and six-figure sneakers, and younger collectors will grow into those…ahem….shoes. Auction houses will continue to monitor the appetite for emerging categories and pursue it accordingly.
What’s next? As you read this, 242 more pairs from Nadal’s collection are crossing the auction block. That $1.27 million total is set to head higher.
Graphic: Altan Insights
Records on Repeat
In March, the sports card “Big Four” of PSA, CGC, SGC, and Beckett combined to grade more than 1.73 million items. That record-breaking level of productivity surpassed any previous month, as PSA experienced a grading increase of 9% year-over-year, while CGC and SGC increased by 52% and 22% respectively.
May makes a new high. That March record didn’t last long. In May, PSA graded 1.36 million cards, the most in company history, while CGC saw an 88% increase in activity YoY, and SGC increased by 97%. With the overall market realizing yet another record, Beckett continued to fall behind as the once iconic hobby name graded 100,000 fewer cards than both CGC and SGC.
TCG takes less of the pie. In September, PSA graded 1.2 million cards and 576,000 of those cards fell into the TCG category. In May, PSA graded 1.36 million cards but less than 440,000 were TCG. With TCG now representing less than 33% of PSA’s grading activity after previously scaling close to 50%, sports like basketball, football, and soccer are seeing steep increases in grading throughput.
Photo: Goldin
Saved by the Irrevocable Bid
Originally billed as a first-of-its-kind event, the Goldin 100 is now in its second year and the results have been mixed. The inaugural Goldin 100, held last June, saw 42 lots sell for $16.4 million in total. The average price per lot of $391,314 was unprecedented, and with 76% of all items selling for at least six-figures, the auction was undoubtedly one of the most impressive of the spring season. The second sale delivered 51 lots with a total auction handle of $9 million for an average of $178,925. There were no million-dollar sales in round two, but more than half of all lots sold still realized six-figures.
Despite the success, specifically in the first event, there still were complaints and disappointments, led heavily by the sentiment that the Michael Jordan-worn “Flu Game” sneakers should have sold for more than $1.38 million. That sentiment was shared with the headline game-worn collectible in their spring 2024 edition of the Goldin 100.
Achilles heel. Less than a week before the first edition of the Goldin 100 was set to close, Fox Business ran an article with the headline “Michael Jordan's famous 'flu game' sneakers projected to fetch over $3M at auction.” Not only did the sneakers fall short of that estimate, which was provided by the namesake of the auction house, but it failed even to reach half that number.
Then, in what one could reasonably mistake for a case of déjà vu, the jersey worn by Kobe Bryant in the 2013 game in which he tore his achilles received a $3 million - $5 million estimate by Goldin leading into the final days of the event. The jersey reached $435,000 through eight bids before receiving a $1 million irrevocable bid. The bid was enough to win the jersey as buyer’s premium pushed the final tally to $1.2 million – again, less than half of the $3 million estimate.
Where does the Kobe market stand today? With this latest sale, the market for Kobe memorabilia continued its trend of inconsistent and unpredictable results. There have been breakout sales – such as the 1996-97 signed jersey sold by Goldin for $3.6 million in 2021. That result placed Kobe at the top of the basketball jersey world until Michael Jordan and the “Last Dance” came along. In 2023, Sotheby’s sold the jersey worn during Kobe’s MVP season for $5.8 million to give his market a new record.
The sale was an impressive result on paper but there was something noteworthy about the bidding activity. The jersey entered the auction with a pre-sale estimate between $5 million - $7 million and received an irrevocable bid at that low estimate mark and then failed to attract another bid.
Has the Kobe market been inflated by irrevocable bids? While that $5.8 million sale occurred in 2023, there was another Kobe Bryant jersey sold via Sotheby’s in April of this year. That jersey was from the 2009 NBA Finals and was given a pre-sale estimate between $1.5 million and $2.5 million. There was an irrevocable bid placed near the low estimate and the jersey failed to garner any additional attention, ultimately selling for $1.75 million with buyer’s premium.
Then came the Goldin sale. The auction opened on April 19th and the bidding activity was surprisingly sparse. There were only three bids placed on the first three days of the auction and only five placed by May 1st as the price stayed below $400K. In comparison, the 2003-04 Upper Deck Michael Jordan Logoman had attracted 25 bids and reached $1.45 million. Despite limited price movement in the jersey, the irrevocable bid of $1 million - the first IB in the house’s history - was placed on May 7th and closed as the winning bid.
With the Goldin sale now complete, there has not been a Kobe Bryant jersey sold at auction for more than $1 million that was not acquired through an irrevocable bid since 2022. It begs the question: where would open-market bidding close without the backstop provided by the IBs?
Results Round-Up
Not to bury the lede - we figured you probably heard already - but Goldin produced a huge result for that Michael Jordan Logoman. The $2,928,000 is a record for any Jordan card. A PSA 10 1986 Fleer Jordan rookie sold for $292,800. That’s the highest result for the card since January of this year and the second highest result since January of 2022.
Heritage sold nearly $1.7 million in Star Wars memorabilia, led by the record-breaking $525,000 sale of a Boba Fett Rocket-Firing Prototype action figure.
A highly-graded, retail version of that action figure sold for $84,375, with six other Kenner figures hitting five-figures.
The lightsaber used by both Rey and Luke Skywalker in The Last Jedi sold for $62,500.
Prestige Memorabilia’s Tennis Auction notched a significant result for Rafael Nadal sneakers, selling his iconic “What the Rafa” Nikes worn in the 2019 French Open for $25,063.
Hunt completed its auction of the personal collection of Christy Mathewson. The top sale was the $145,700 result for a Type-I cabinet photograph of Mathewson by Carl Horner. It was estimated to sell for between $50,000 and $100,000. The event totaled $239k in Type-I photography sales.
The NBA Auctions Primetime Performers event at Sotheby’s delivered some highlights, including $120,000 for a Wembanyama jersey and $31,200 for Derrick Rose’s NBA debut jersey (versus a head-scratching $1,000 - $3,000 estimate). That’s the highest result for a Wemby jersey outside of his $762,000 debut. The event also showed better performance versus estimates than last week’s Playoff Contenders auction. Here’s the breakdown of hammer price performance versus estimates:
Below: 44% (vs. 53% last week)
Within: 40% (vs. 36% last week)
Above: 16% (vs. 11% last week)
Photo: Julien’s
Prince’s record-setting Cloud 3 guitar wasn’t always an auction darling, primarily because it wasn’t known to be that infamous Cloud 3 guitar. The same instrument sold at Christie’s in 2005 for £4,200 (close to $8,000 at the time) and reportedly sold for less than a £59,000 listing price on eBay at a later date.
But with some clarity added to its story thanks to medical imaging and well-placed expert opinion, it’s now worth $910,000. Over a little less than two decades, it increased in value by 112X, appreciating at a rate of 28% annually, though that was anything but steady, with the value unlocked by heightened credibility.
Sometimes, an item simply is what it is. But in rare cases, playing a hunch and doing the painstaking diligence and research just might unearth a treasure hiding in plain sight.
 Photo: Sotheby’s | 6/5 - Sotheby’s Important Watches
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Other New York Watch Auctions:
Closing 6/9 - Phillips The New York Watch Auction: X
Closing 6/10 - Christie’s Important Watches
Closing 6/11 - Sotheby’s Fine Watches
 Photo: Grey Flannel | 6/9 - Grey Flannel Summer Games Auction
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 Photo: Christie’s | 6/11 - Christie’s Masterpieces from the Schøyen Collection Featured: The Crosby-Schøyen Codex
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Also on the slate:
Closing 6/5 - RM Sotheby’s Dare to Dream | The Ultimate Sneaker Collection
Closing 6/7 - Heritage Fine & Rare Signature Wine Auction
Closing 6/8 - Goldin May Elite Sports Auction
Closing 6/11 - Christie’s Beyond The Screen (Digital Art)
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