More Letters Than a Post Office

Are we collecting assets or LOAs?

June 20, 2024

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Welcome to Alts & Ends, your lively guide to collectible market happenings. In this action-packed edition, we examine a strange authentication practice in memorabilia and the latest trends in the glamorous world of Birkin bags.

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Letters for Good Measure

One last piece of duct tape over an already sealed leak. Hand sanitizer on recently washed hands. Deadbolting the hotel room door.

These are all things that are probably superfluous but can make a person feel safer or more mentally at ease. But what about an additional photomatch of an item that’s already been photomatched? Collectible market participants have not deemed extra layers of authentication superfluous. In fact, it’s fair to reason that bidders preparing to pay $30 million for an item might desire some additional peace of mind.

What happened? When Heritage initially announced the auction of the Babe Ruth “Called Shot” jersey, MeiGray’s photomatch of the item was central to its authenticity. But why not bolster the case? At the end of May, PSA’s new photomatching service authenticated the jersey using two of the same images at MeiGray’s disposal. For a nascent business line, adding a stamp of approval to what will likely become the most expensive sports memorabilia item ever sold is a coup, necessary or not.

But the “double-bagging” of authentication - as we’ll term it - is not a phenomenon conceived to support this phenomenal artifact. Rather, it’s an increasingly prevalent practice in memorabilia, and its popularity belies a market that does not yet subscribe to the idea that authentication methods requiring human judgment are purely objective and understood as incontrovertible fact.

Why the extra layer of authentication? Few authenticators have avoided the blemishes of erroneously verified items that turn out to be fake. Though they may be rare, those incidents plant seeds of doubt that undermine credibility. This being the case, collectors or consignors feel compelled to seek a second opinion, a deadbolt of sorts to fully lock in their item’s case for authenticity.

This isn’t new. Last week, we highlighted a Michael Jordan Wizards jersey that was authenticated by five different providers between photomatching and signature authentication when it sold in 2018. Five!

Key stat: Of the top ten most valuable jerseys or sneakers Goldin has sold since the start of 2022, seven carried photomatching opinions from more than one provider. In total, there were 18 photomatching letters…for 10 items. For Heritage, 3 of the vintage-heavy top 10 were photomatched by multiple providers.

It’s not just photomatching. The practice of “double-bagging” is perhaps even more prevalent in signature authentication than it is in photomatching. For instance, this year alone, Goldin has sold approximately 150 lots with some combination of JSA, PSA/DNA, and Beckett in the listing title. In fact, at least 13 such lots included all three providers. It seems Harry from Dumb and Dumber was incorrect when he emphatically asserted that “you can’t triple-stamp a double-stamp!”

Good news, bad news. The authentication companies benefit greatly from this practice in the short term. A sports card can’t be slabbed twice by two different services, but a memorabilia item can be authenticated until there are enough letters to fill a mail truck. In the short-term, competition in these services isn’t a zero-sum game, and initial authentication by another company doesn’t preclude a competitor from offering its own opinion later. However, longer term, the notion that their seal of approval isn’t sufficiently credible to stand on its own is problematic.

Where do we go from here? For collectors, the idea that you might have to pay to have an item authenticated multiple times in order to realize maximum value is unpalatable. It’s incumbent upon authenticators to not only heighten their standards and apply them relentlessly, but to demystify their processes, educate the community, and arm collectors with reference material that incontrovertibly supports their opinion of authenticity.

Whoever does those things most thoroughly and accurately will cultivate credibility that stands independently, with no support necessary or even additive from other sources. Until then, collectors may feel compelled to continue amassing more letters than a post office around the holidays.

Photo: Hermès

It’s the tale of two extremes for Hermès, which is experiencing increased retail demand but inconsistent secondary market results. At a time when LVMH revenues are declining, Hermès has outpaced the luxury field despite a combination of market headwinds and an ongoing lawsuit. 

Sales are surging. How good are sales at Hermès? Good enough to give each of their 22,040 employees a $4,300 bonus. That one-time $95 million payout comes after the brand reported a profit of $4.6 billion in 2023. The 28% increase over 2022 profits was delivered on a 16% increase in sales, which surpassed $13 billion on the year. The music is still playing in 2024 with Hermès beating analyst expectations with a strong showing in Q1. In a luxury market scrambling for excuses to justify its stagnant demand, Hermès is cementing itself as an outlier. Hermès posted 13% first quarter revenue growth over Q1 2023 (17% at constant exchange rates), while their Leather Goods and Saddlery group saw a 20% increase. In a trend that differs from the broader luxury market, Hermès experienced double-digit revenue growth across every major region. Sales increased by 14% in China while Europe and the Americas climbed 14.6% and 11.8% respectively.

In comparison, Kering, the parent company of Gucci, Saint Laurent, and Balenciaga, has already warned investors that their 2024 first-half profits could fall by as much as 40-45% YoY. The conglomerate cited “sluggish market conditions” across Asia and internal turnover within their premier brands as reasons for revenue weakness. Meanwhile, LVMH stock has tumbled by nearly 10% over the last month as revenue growth turned negative in Q1.   

Prices are increasing to keep pace. Thanks to skyrocketing demand, the entry-level price for a new Birkin is nearing unprecedented heights. As the calendar flipped, Hermès implemented its 2024 price hikes almost simultaneously with the Times Square ball drop, affecting nearly all styles. The Zip Carabine saw its base rate climb by 10% overnight while the 25cm Togo increased by 9%. For reference, the 25 Togo, which is most known for its claim as the smallest standard Birkin, retailed for $9,400 in 2019. That retail price gradually rose by $1,000 over the next four years before jumping an additional $1,000 overnight between 2023 and 2024.

Their legal fees are also increasing. If you haven’t been following activity regarding Hermès’ sales, maybe you’ve been following the company’s various court appearances. In 2022, Hermès sued digital artist Mason Rothschild after Rothschild created and sold NFTs that featured 3D renderings of Birkin handbags. In 2023, the case closed as the court found Rothschild liable for trademark infringement and ordered the artist to pay $133,000 in damages. Earlier this year, a judge prohibited Rothschild from exhibiting the MetaBirkin NFTs at a museum in Sweden, further cementing a victory for the luxury mogul.

As the MetaBirkin ordeal moved to the rearview, the luxury retailer was hit with a class action suit that accused the brand of only selling its Birkin handbags to select clients – specifically those who have spent significant money at the store previously.  Anecdotal reports suggest the allegation itself does not seem outlandish. Those active in the sport of Birkin-buying believe a robust purchase history is often a prerequisite to demonstrate brand allegiance and skip a lengthy waiting list. The legality of that process, along with the question of whether Hermès has unfairly favored certain customers over others, will ultimately be determined by the courts.

Does the auction market indicate weakness? Even with the combination of increased sales and rising retail prices, there are signals from the secondary market that paint a less rosy picture. Last week, a 30cm Matte White Himalaya Niloticus Crocodile Birkin fitted with Palladium Hardware sold at auction for $85,000. It wasn’t uncommon to see these rare high-dollar bags selling for six figures between 2017 and 2019. At the latest handbag sale held by Sotheby’s, the results were mixed as a Vert D’eau Alligator Birkin went unsold after failing to reach its low estimate of $75,000 while a Black Matte version sold for $132,000 against a $50,000 - $80,000 estimate to lead the event. As tastes change and discrepancies in performance widen, it becomes less about buying a Birkin, but which Birkin you’re buying.

Graphic: Bank of America “Study of Wealthy Americans”

The Collectibles Generation 

There’s a plethora of anecdotal evidence that younger generations share a greater passion for collectibles than their predecessors. However, data-based support for that hypothesis is becoming increasingly prevalent and noteworthy.

Bank of America’s recently released “Study of Wealthy Americans” surveyed 1,007 respondents 21 years old or older with at least $3 million in assets. The full report is worth a read, but the findings in collectibles are particularly striking. 94% of wealthy Gen-Z and Millennial respondents reported an interest in collectibles, as compared to 57% of Boomers.

Among the most significant differences between respondents age 21-43 and age 44 and over:

  • 46% of younger respondents showed an interest in watches, versus just 19% of older respondents. Ironic, since the younger generation spent most of their lives not needing one.

  • 30% of younger respondents reported an interest in sneakers, versus just 2% of older respondents (who are more likely to call them “tennis shoes” - our take, not Bank of America’s…).

  • 36% of younger respondents reported an interest in wine or spirits, as opposed to 13% of older respondents - surprisingly, not as much of a common ground as one might have expected.

What the survey does not assess is what “interest” entails and to what degree it’s financially motivated. The findings suggest activity in collectible categories will increase as younger generations come into wealth, but the balance between pure collecting motivations and shorter-term financial motivations will inform how, when, and where that activity translates to movement in values.

Results Round-Up

  • Here’s a winning combination: first successful powered flight + first manned lunar landing. Heritage sold a piece of the propeller from the Wright Brothers’ flyer, which was carried to the surface of the moon on Apollo XI, for $150,000. A piece of wing fabric sold for $100,000.

  • Goldin sold a 2004 Artbox Harry Potter and the Prisoner of Azkaban card, signed by each of the three stars, for $40,260. The card was graded PSA 8; a copy graded PSA 8 and PSA/DNA 9 sold for $47,400 in December of 2022. Another example sells at PWCC this week.

  • Goldin also sold a PSA 10 1st Edition Charizard Holo for $170,800. The card was a “Thick Stamp” version, referring to the thickness of the “1” in the “Edition 1” print on the card. Thick is believed to be earlier and rarer than thin. It made little difference here, though, as the result is near the bottom of the card’s 2-year range.

  • At Golden Age, Tiger Woods’ Scotty Cameron GSS “Backup Putter” sold for $113,602.

  • A 12-bottle case of Pappy Van Winkle 20 Year Old Family Reserve from a single barrel sold for $100,000 at Sotheby’s, finishing inside its $80,000 - $120,000 estimate range.

  • The illuminating dance floor from Saturday Night Fever sold for $325,000 at Julien’s, settling inside its $200,000 - $300,000 estimate range before fees.

  • There was no love for “The Dude” at Julien’s. The five most valuable Big Lebowski lots, including screen-matched ensembles worn by Jeff Bridges and John Turturro, failed to sell.

  • RR Auction sold a fully operational German Enigma I Cipher Machine from World War II for $214,079, exceeding the $165,000+ estimate.

  • Meanwhile, 8GB versions of sealed, first-generation iPhones remain subdued in value. An example sold at RR for $11,229, which is actually an improvement on an $8,249 March result.

  • The Snoop Dogg-smoked blunt sold for $4,765 after 61 bids at The Realest. We’re pretty confident that’s a record for any smoked blunt.

Photo: Siegel Auction Galleries

As prolific as Bill Gross was in the bond markets, his philatelic prowess merits admiration. The bond king assembled perhaps the most veritable private collection of stamps ever, and in recent years, that collection has been available for sale. Last week, Siegel Auction Galleries sold some of the vaunted singles from Gross’s vault of philatelic treasures, grossing (pun the most intended it’s ever been) nearly $20 million in that sale alone.

The second-most-expensive stamp sold in the auction was the 15-cent Z Grill. There are only two known, genuine copies of the stamp, one of which Gross bought for $209,000 in 1998. Last week, that stamp sold for $2,773,000 with buyer’s premium, appreciating at a rate of 11% gross of fees and hammering above its $1,500,000 to $2,000,000 estimate.

The most expensive stamp was the only example of the 1-cent Z Grill in private hands. It sold for $4,366,000, hammering just shy of expectations. To acquire that piece in 2005, Gross traded a 24c Inverted Jenny plate block he bought two weeks earlier for $2.97 million.

Only the philatelic world could make the NBA trade deadline look tame by comparison.

6/20 - 6/23 - Heritage Comics & Comic Art Signature Auction


With only 36 Universal CGC-graded copies in total, Detective Comics #27 projects the Bat Signal to bidders any time it comes to auction. This particular copy last sold at Heritage in January of 2022 for $1,140,000. Given the strength of collectible markets broadly and comic book markets specifically at that time, the result here should offer valuable insight on high-end demand.

Photo: Sotheby’s

6/21 - Sotheby’s Edmonton Oilers & Wayne Gretzky | A Championship Legacy


The Oilers’ Stanley Cup hopes are still alive, and they’ll hope to recapture the magic of the 80s glory days. This week at Sotheby’s, Wayne Gretzky’s stick from the 1988 clincher, photomatched by MeiGray, is up for bidding. In June of 2022, the jersey from that game sold for $1,452,000 at Grey Flannel, while the gloves sold for $204,162.

Also on the slate:

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