One-Of-One Assets, One-of-One Talent

One-of-One Assets, One-of-One Player

There aren’t many active athletes that can deservedly command a solo Alts & Ends feature multiple times in a year. But riddle us this: how many active athletes are 7’4 athletic freaks with handles like a guard and a dangerous shooting stroke?

Armed with that unprecedented set of skills, Victor Wembanyama more than lived up to impossible amounts of hype this season. That hype has translated to the collecting world at every turn, with each new piece that arrives on the auction block validating his inevitable superstardom. So powerful is the Frenchman’s appeal that he single-handedly resurrected NBA TopShot…

While it’s hard to be hyperbolic about Wembanyama, the prior statement does verge on exaggeration. NBA TopShot volume is rising, with Q1 sales volume up 37% over Q4 per our Q1 Sports Collectibles Market report. The positive momentum for the NFT-highlight platform is refreshing, but that Q1 volume was still just 7% of the mania-induced volume ($165 million) of Q1 2022. While overall activity is down, apparently the allure of top-tier moments is nearly as high as it's ever been.

Last week, a 1-of-1 moment featuring highlights from Wembanyama’s NBA debut sold via auction for $145,000.

Let’s put that result in context. Per TopShot’s website, 14 moments have achieved six-figure sales in the platform’s history, with Wembanyama’s ranking fifth. Of those 14 sales, Wembanyama’s is the only one that didn’t occur in 2021. The next most expensive non-2021 sale came in January of 2022 for a mere $65,000. More telling, the most expensive moment sold in all of 2023 was $21,000. But nothing invigorates a market quite like a 1-of-1 sale of a 1-of-1 player.

In the physical card world, it was another “1-of-1” that energized PWCC’s Premier Auction last week, as Wembanyama’s Black Shimmer Prizm card sold for $516,000, which is the most expensive result at PWCC in 2024. The card is one of three Wemby “1-of-1s” in the 2023 Panini Prizm base set, which kind of makes it a 1-of-3 when you think about it. Those mental gymnastics are requisite of an interest in ultra-modern cards, but we digress.

The result is massive, particularly when you consider that his Black 1-of-1 card received a PSA 10 grade versus the Black Shimmer’s PSA 9; the former is likely to fetch an even greater sum. The rookie darling of the early 2020s card boom, Zion Williamson, boasts a card record that sits just modestly higher at $594,000, and that was for a National Treasures Rookie Patch Autograph; that card won't exist for Wembanyama given his autograph exclusivity with Fanatics.

The market has softened considerably since Zion’s 2019 Prizm cards served as a leading symptom of the feverish demand for sports cards. In late 2020, his base Prizm card graded PSA 10 once sold for as much as $960 and predominantly traded in a $500-750 range. That card now has a population of nearly 23,000 and sells for about $45 despite Williamson’s resurgence. The market appears to have learned its lesson...but only to a degree: Wembanyama’s PSA 10 base card trades near $250.

If early population growth is any indication, armies of that card will soon swarm the market as well. Just two months after its official release date and three months after the first card from the set passed through PSA’s halls, 2023 Panini Prizm has reached a population of nearly 25,000 cards. By comparison, data from Gemrate shows that 2022 Panini Prizm, highlighted by the less alluring Paolo Banchero, reached a population of about 5,500 two months after release and a little over 11,000 three months after release. 

PSA has graded 2,011 Banchero base cards in total. Despite Wembanyama’s cards releasing about ten months later, his base card population has already grown to 5,848. As you read this, that figure is increasing rapidly, much like the scoreboard from the first half of the Monstars’ game against The Tune Squad. On average over the past week, PSA has graded 163 Wembanyama Prizm base cards a day.

The rookie has also been a saving grace for the early editions of the Sotheby’s and NBA Auctions partnership. Through the partnership, Sotheby’s has hosted five auction events to date, and a Wembanyama jersey has been the top-selling lot at four of those five events. The only time Wembanyama failed to lead, his jersey was the second-highest-selling lot, trailing only the jersey from LeBron’s record-breaking 20th All-Star Game. Already, the house has grossed more than $1 million in Wembanyama memorabilia sales.

Victor Wembanyama’s grip on a collectibles market starved for excitement and optimism among young stars borders on unprecedented. While there have certainly been bigger stars, none have confronted a collectibles market at these heights across so many different mediums, and few have had to do so in the aftermath of a severe market correction. Who would have guessed that a man standing 7-foot-4 would be the one to not only wag a finger in the face of tepid market conditions but to overcome the big-man bias altogether?

Premium for Penmanship

We’re not sure if the pen is mightier than the sword, but there’s no doubt that it has the power to make things more expensive.

This past weekend, Robert Edward Auctions sold two 1933 Goudey Lou Gehrig cards.

The price for a PSA 8: $162,000.

The price for a signed card with only an auto grade: $180,000.

The price achieved by REA for the unsigned PSA 8 was $50,000 more than any other PSA 8 sold in the past year, yet it was still surpassed by the signed edition which set a new record for any signed 1933 Goudey Gehrig at auction.

The days of a signature discounting the value of a card are waning. And it’s not just pre-war vintage that’s making waves this week. 

Last week, it was revealed in an article by Darren Rovell that Michael Jordan had signed 10 of his 1986 Fleer rookie cards. The signing, which was done as secretly as it could’ve been considering the population report on PSA is public, marks an unprecedented move for the G.O.A.T. Not only does Michael Jordan refuse to offer public signings today, but he was also notorious for refusing signings during his playing days.

There are countless stories of Jordan turning down signing requests from fans, opponents, and kids. Knowing that Jordan would refuse, Scottie Pippen once admitted to occasionally signing Jordan’s name when a young fan handed something over for #23 to autograph. Jordan would even charge his own coaches and teammates for autograph requests from their family and friends.

So, the idea that Jordan would suddenly have a change of heart and sign 10 cards and supposedly not be paid for it?

We’ll revert to a word used previously: Unprecedented.

Once we move beyond just how crazy that story is, the next logical question becomes “How much are the cards worth?”.

There is little to no precedent when it comes to appraising a signed Michael Jordan rookie card, specifically one that resides in a PSA 10 slab. Lucky for us, the closest comparable sold as recently as March 16^th. In its monthly Premier Auction, PWCC sold a PSA 8-graded MJ rookie that carried a PSA 9-graded signature for $205,000.

One the same day as the PWCC sale, one unsigned PSA 8 Jordan rookie sold for $6,150 on eBay which gives the signed version a multiple of 33x. 

Considering the current going rate of a PSA 10 is hovering around $180,000, applying a 33x multiple would imply a fair market value of $6 million.

Record scratch.

That $6 million implied value wouldn’t fly for insurance appraisal purposes.

If the owner of these signed Jordan cards is looking to take out an insurance policy to protect them, the appraisal should fall somewhere in the ballpark of $4 million. Based on the population of six PSA 10/Auto 10 Fleer Jordan rookies, there is no precedent for $6 million, even with a premium in place. For insurance appraisals, replacement cost is used rather than fair market value, as it incorporates an estimate of the future cost of replacing an item, not just the current fair market value. While one could argue that it would be impossible to replace the cards assuming the signing event was a one-time thing, the fact that there wasn’t a payment made for the signing would impact the value. The cost of acquiring a signature can be used within the replacement cost and since there was no payment made, the replacement would instead rely on a comparable.

So what about fair market value? Remember, FMV ≠ Replacement Value. In nearly all cases, it’s going to be less as the additional costs and estimates on replacing are not the same as the current market rate with no additional factors.

There are few cards that could be used as a comparable, and the one that would fit best is from a different era and sport, in addition to being unsigned.

Per the Cllct report, the population of signed PSA 10/Auto 10 cards went from zero to six overnight. Only one post-war card with a population above six has ever sold for more than $5 million, and there has never been a sale at auction that high for any card meeting those criteria. The card, a PSA 9-graded 1952 Topps Mickey Mantle, sold privately for $5.2 million in 2021.

There has never been a Jordan card sold at auction for more than $3 million, and a Jordan rookie card has never reached $2 million. With that in mind, any attempts to justify a fair market value more than the current Jordan card record of $2.7 million would be difficult to defend. 

The current signed Jordan rookie record was set in 2022 at Christie’s, when a BGS 8.5/Auto 9 sold for $1 million. If we’re relying solely on multiples, that’s a 140x multiple over the average BGS 8.5 price at the time of sale. That multiple would value a PSA 10/Auto 10 at $25 million. It’s safe to say that’s not happening.

If anything is clear, it’s that assessing the value of sports cards and memorabilia is a complex and nuanced process. Still, with a simple swipe of the pen (or marker), Jordan added a zero to the value of six cards. Fair to say that power is mightier than any sword.

With the exception of a few bright spots, 2023 was a challenging year in the sports collectibles market. Did the first quarter of 2024 offer more of the same, or is a reversal in fortunes underway? If there aren’t signs of a turning tide...perhaps at least there are calmer seas.

Is the mix-shift towards vintage and away from modern at the high end of the market complete, or is it still ongoing? Is game-worn faltering under the weight of massive expectations? All will be answered.

Inside, you'll find:

• A detailed analysis of auction activity and the types of assets selling best

• Card market performance and commentary, with subcategory nuance thoroughly explained

• An update on the headline-making game-worn memorabilia market

• Fascinating and relevant market trends in each sport

• Records, grading population updates, ticket market analysis, digital collectible details, and much more!

• NEW this quarter: an analysis of the emerging Type I photograph market

Whether you work in the industry, collect assets, or invest, the information needed to keep your finger on the pulse of the sports collectibles market is here, captured and made digestible.

Click the link below to receive your free copy of the report today!