Six Degrees of Authentication

Your Friendly Neighborhood Collectibles Grader

You could make a formidable argument that CGC’s competitive position in comic books is the single most dominant in all of collectibles grading. In fact, you could make an argument that it’s not even really close, particularly when you consider the duration of CGC’s largely unchallenged command of the category. 

Key stats: Heritage has sold over $57 million in comic books (excluding original art and comic memorabilia) in 2024 to date. CGC-graded books account for $52 million of that total, or 91%, despite comprising only 61% of the lots. And that remaining 9%? It doesn’t belong to a competitor. CBCS accounts for only 1% of sales volume. Most of the balance is raw books. You’d find similar stats at Goldin and other houses as well. 

Pure dominance.

What’s next? The days of unchallenged dominance end in 2025. Next year, PSA joins the fray, eager to either carve out or create market share that won’t submit to the inexorable pull of CGC’s comic-grading tractor beam. The card grading behemoth enters the arena to find an incumbent champion not particularly weak or vulnerable to competitive threat - both costs and turnaround times are relatively reasonable.

And PSA won’t soon usurp CGC in comic book credibility and value conveyed….but it doesn’t need to in order to be successful.

Rather, PSA need only build its own credibility to offer a convenient and worthwhile comic-grading alternative to its massive database of existing customers, many of whom enjoy collecting pursuits that extend well beyond cardboard. The company’s recent success in TCG, which enjoyed explosive population growth in 2023, bodes well for its ambitions in comic books. Additionally, in June, PSA graded approximately 49,000 non-sport, non-TCG cards, the subject matter of which often crosses over with comic book franchises. 

The bottom line. PSA may not be the kryptonite to CGC’s Superman-grading capabilities in the near-term. But - to web-sling another comic book analogy at you - it could be the friendly neighborhood grader to its own existing community of collectors. That neighborhood is large and active.

Worth knowing: PSA has joined a second Kith x Marvel sneaker collaboration. In the first iteration, PSA-graded Marvel cards accompanied the sneakers. This time, its PSA-graded comic books. Kith remains one of the most celebrated brands in streetwear, and the collaboration - likely to be one of the most celebrated of the year - provides tremendous visibility for PSA’s new services pre-launch.

Cards, Collectibles, Catalysts, and Cleveland

100,000 attendees.

150 stars set to sign autographs.

And of course... the perfect setting... Cleveland, Ohio.

As we examine the sports collectibles market heading into the 2024 National, we’ll do our best to keep Cleveland slander to a minimum. From catching rivers on fire to the disastrous Balloonfest of 1986, not to mention decades of torment for their sports fans, the “Mistake on the Lake” is way too easy to poke fun at.

Over the next few days though, the city will stand at the center of the sports card and memorabilia universe.

In a way, the sports market and Cleveland might have a lot in common. Both have experienced better days, but for both, brighter times could be on the horizon in Q3.

This week, the first Golf Antiques auction, hosted by esteemed collector Jeff Ellis, will close at Golden Age with at least two pieces of golf history set to surpass $60,000 – only four golf collectibles reached those levels in the entirety of Q2.

Then we enter what could be a historic August.

The fun will start as Robert Edward Auctions looks to set a record for any 1951 Bowman Willie Mays card. Their Summer 2024 auction opened this week, but bidding has already pushed the PSA 8.5 graded card to nearly $300,000 after fees and buyer’s premium. The record for a ’51 Bowman Mays stands at $338,400, well within striking distance for the card at REA. In addition to the Mays, there’s a near-complete 1909-11 T206 White Border set with a current bid of $120,000, while a PSA 8 Bowman Mays has reached $70,000 and should close well above $100,000.

On August 17th, Part 2 of the Goldin 100 will close, and the highly anticipated event already has nine items above $100,000. Currently, the top lot is a 2003-04 Upper Deck Kobe Bryant Logoman that has reached $360,000 through six bids, while the gold medal awarded to Clyde Drexler of the 1992 Dream Team has attracted one bid and sits at $250,000.

While the market will provide plenty of worthy appetizers, the main entree comes at Heritage later in the month. The auction is headlined by the jersey worn by Babe Ruth for the iconic “Called Shot,” which has already eclipsed any sports collectible with a price of $12.96 million with premium. With a pre-sale estimate of $30 million, there could be plenty of fireworks before the hammer falls.

While the historic Ruth threads will get the lion’s share of attention, there are already four other pieces of sports memorabilia that have eclipsed the $1 million mark. For reference, there were six total seven-figure auction sales for the sports collectibles market in Q2 and only seven across both Q4 2023 and Q1 2024 combined. We haven’t seen a quarter with more than eight seven-figure sales since 2022 but Heritage could reach that total in a single auction.

On the opening day of The National, the Cleveland Guardians have 60 wins, tied for the most in the American League. Just as there’s hope on the horizon for the city’s ball club, that hope might be reflected in the sports collectibles on the floor at this year’s premier card show.

Here’s to a safe and exciting National... and the greatest month in sports auction market history.

Third Year’s a Charm

Earlier this month, Christie’s provided a hot talking point for the middle of summer, announcing its auction results for the first half of 2024. To the surprise of few, auction sales were down markedly from the first half of 2023, falling 22% to a total of $2.1 billion. And that 2023 first half total was already down 23% from 2022; over two years, sales have fallen a precipitous 40%.

The market softness is by no means a Christie’s anomaly, as colder conditions have tightened their bruising grip on a wide spectrum of houses. Barring an unforeseen and unlikely second half turnaround on par with Bobby Boucher showing up at half time and the Mud Dogs winning the Bourbon Bowl, the art market is likely to close 2024 with its second consecutive annual decline in auction sales. These are bleak times in the art world, but they are not without precedent. In fact, per historic Art Market reports from Arts Economics, auctions sales declined consecutively in 2008 and 2009, 2015 and 2016, and 2019 and 2020. 

Good news: In each instance, there was no third year of decline, and the market responded with a spirited recovery.

In fact, across those three instances, the average third year increase in art market auction sales amounted to 43%. Even better, in the two years following consecutive years of auction sales decline, the market averaged a 52% total increase from the trough. 

The takeaway: significant drawdowns in activity over multiple years are not at all uncommon in the art world, and they often follow a period of significant trophy sales, carefully managed auctions, and heavy speculation on young artists (all are familiar recent factors). But the art market frequently bounces back with vigor after a reset. 

It’s not all bad. Christie’s reported an 87% sell-through rate, which remains a healthy figure on par with last year (albeit under tightly managed conditions), as well as a 111% index of hammer price to the low estimate, better than last year’s 107%. Expectations have adjusted, and the lots that are selling are largely meeting those new, reduced expectations.

Plus, outside of Christie’s, Heritage Auctions - which boasts a harder lean away from art and into cultural collectibles - reported the highest mid-year total in its history, hitting $925 million in sales, a figure which would have been a full year record as recently as four years ago.

Appeal is in the Eye of the Beholder

Not all PSA 10s are created equal. 

While grading adds a remarkable amount of structure and uniformity to a market sorely in need of it, it’s not a perfect science that puts all cards of the same grade on equal footing. Explaining the gaps in market value between a PSA 10 and a PSA 9 to a Hobby outsider already draws looks of incredulity, so imagine explaining that - well, actually - some PSA 9s are vastly more valuable than other PSA 9s because of largely unquantifiable factors like eye appeal. 

That’s a lecture sure to be met with an open-mouth, glazed-eye gaze so stupefied that it will make even the lecturer question the merit of what they're saying.

Think of it this way: grading companies have done probably ~90% of the heavy lifting by authenticating and assigning their numeric grades, but there are elements of a card’s appeal that fall outside the confines of the grading evaluation. Within that 10% beckons opportunity.

Who’s capitalizing? Heritage is the latest house to recognize that opportunity, introducing its Best-In-Class service last week not just for cards, but for the full spectrum of sports memorabilia. In cards, the Best-In-Class evaluation compares the card to other, like-graded versions of the card to determine if it is among the very most visually appealing examples in that grade. 

The objective is simple: unlock value at auction for those cards deemed to be deserving of a premium price relative to peers.

As it’s the auction house itself providing these designations, participants will take them with a grain of salt. Houses are incentivized to achieve high prices, but they should also recognize that designations will ultimately be worthless if they’re overused or seen to be lacking in credibility.

Notably, the Heritage announcement coincided with last week’s PWCC rebrand to Fanatics Collect, including the rebranding of PWCC’s eye appeal designations, which have been in effect since 2018. Since May of 2021, sales of cards with eye appeal designations on the PWCC platform have totaled over $35 million. 

Why bother? One benefit of offering these designations: it makes the cards stickier to the auction house.

Competing houses generally won’t be keen to emphatically advertise the might of another house’s designations, heightening the consignor's inclination to keep the card within the same ecosystem the next time it comes up for sale. Cross-house sales do happen on occasion, but they’re rare.

Does it add value? Isolating the contribution of the designation is a challenge, particularly in cards that trade infrequently in markets that have moved significantly in both directions over the last four years. Moreover, to what degree can you really isolate the impact of the designation from the premium a bidder might pay without it, just on their own cognizance of the card’s appeal? 

We can, however, look at a larger swath of data to begin to consider the impact, comparing those cards that sold with designations in PWCC’s Premier Auctions over the last four years (about 800 cards) to those that sold with no designation. Cards with appeal designations generated a significant premium in average price in 2021 and 2022, but that chasm tightened in 2023 and 2024 to date. 

Then, there’s the anecdotal evidence. There are myriad examples of a card with an eye appeal designation raising conspicuous bumps on an otherwise languid price chart:

• A 1954 Topps Hank Aaron card with a PWCC-A designation was the most expensive PSA 9 ever sold, fetching $720,000 in August of 2022 - about 11% higher than any other sale.

• A PSA 8 1952 Topps Jackie Robinson card, given the PWCC-E distinction, sold for $276,000 in June of 2022, 39% higher than any other sale.

• A PWCC-A 1952 Topps Mantle is the most expensive PSA 5 of the card ever sold, reaching $174,000 in July of 2023, abutted by a $132,000 sale a day earlier and a $126,000 sale two weeks later.

Yet, there are plenty of instances of sales that are decidedly ho-hum. An endless number of variables comprise the result achieved in any one auction sale, but secondary market card purveyors appear to be resolute in their commitment to add another ingredient to the cauldron.

Have we gone too far? Not far enough! We’re still awaiting the arrival of the eager entrepreneur, currently rubbing his hands together and readying a pitch for another layer of evaluation based on the idea that not all Heritage Best-In-Class or Fanatics-Superior or MBA Gold Diamond cards are equal in quality. Best-of-the-Best Authentication. If your card is of sufficient appeal, they’ll entomb it in a piece of the Aggro Crag from Nickelodeon GUTS.  

Move over, “Six Degrees of Kevin Bacon.” We’re headed for “Six Degrees of Authentication.”

Go deeper: check out an expanded analysis, including additional data, on this topic here.

Presented by:

Sales volumes continue to decline at the high end of the sports collectibles market, but the market is as nuanced as ever. To understand the push and pull of supply and demand in its various categories and subcategories requires an in-depth examination of the data.

Fear not: we’ve done the heavy lifting for you, looking beneath the surface to understand how different pockets of the market are really performing.

Is vintage growing tired from carrying the market? Is modern ready to chip in and do its part again? Is game-worn faltering under the weight of massive expectations? All will be answered.

This in-depth research report from Altan Insights examines auction sales, market performance, and much more to understand how the market held up across categories, eras, and sports. Game-worn vs. cards. Vintage vs. modern. Physical vs. digital.

Inside, you'll find:

• A detailed analysis of auction activity and the types of assets selling best

• Card market performance and commentary, with subcategory nuance thoroughly explained

• An update on the game-worn memorabilia market, including the Sotheby’s NBA Auctions partnership

• Fascinating and relevant market trends in each sport

• Records, grading population updates, the ongoing Type I photo explosion, ticket market analysis, digital collectible details, and much more!

Whether you work in the industry, collect assets, or invest, the information needed to keep your finger on the pulse of the sports collectibles market is here, captured and made digestible.

Click the link below to receive your free copy of the report today!