The Time is Now

The Time is Now

The rookie card is as American as the Fourth of July.

Cards of veteran players are of a lower caste, and the moment depicted on a sports card rarely matters. What has traditionally mattered most in the eccentric cardboard economy is simply being first, or at least close to it. From a business perspective, those preferences yield a counterintuitive dynamic in which a sport’s foremost stars aren’t necessarily the drivers of sales, even if they’re in the midst of their most memorable and prolific campaigns.

But in 2016, Topps launched an antidote to those dynamics, an invitation to collecting newcomers and seasoned veterans alike to shift their collecting focus to moments. Topps Now, as it’s known, offered consumers an accessible way to access cards depicting moments of significance in near real-time, effectively right in the aftermath of the event.

Supply for those cards is not constrained by a strategic decision of management but instead by a length of time in which the card is available for sale. Those who want it can assuredly purchase it, with fates not left to the cruel whims of an unopened pack, nor another eBay adventure. To the hobby cynic or purist, this “à la carte” manner of purchasing, combined with a printing press that would be the envy of the Fed, looks the part of a money grab. To the newcomer or the overwhelmed collector, it’s a simplified approach to collecting cards that fosters a feeling of connectivity to a moment.

Thanks to the large print runs - with supply effectively rising to meet demand at retail - and a perception of the cards as somewhat of a novelty, the secondary market clamor for Topps Now has never been particularly noisy.

But that’s changing.

Key stat: Through just the first seven months of 2024, sales of Topps Now cards at auction have exceeded the 2023 total for the full year by 20%. The total is also 53% higher than the 2022 tally. (Note: these figures exclude eBay)

What’s behind it? The significant growth in sales volume cited above comes despite a 21% decline in lots sold versus the whole of 2023 (lots sold are still on pace to grow 36% by year end, though). But thanks to the insertion of serial numbered parallels and autographs in the product, both on a random basis and through standalone offerings at a higher price, certain Topps Now cards are now high-end assets. For instance, signed Topps Now cards are driving secondary market growth: 2024 year-to-date auction sales of signed Topps Now cards are up 53% versus the whole of 2023, while unsigned sales are down 8%.

Similarly, auction sales volume of 1-of-1 cards has more than quadrupled in 2024, while non-1-of-1 sales are effectively flat (though there will be healthy growth as volume from the remaining five months of the year is added).

Secondary market sales of Topps Now are top (or should we say Topp?) heavy: the top 1% of sales account for approximately 50% of auction volume in 2024.

What are people buying? Autos and 1-of-1s mean little unless the subject matter is compelling, and the subject matter of Topps Now has delivered over the last year. Most notably, the product served as the launchpad for Victor Wembanyama’s agreement with the company, offering some of his earliest cards and capturing the collecting frenzy that ensued. But it’s not Wemby alone driving the growth, even if his superhuman wingspan is shouldering a significant load.

Other rookies of the last few years (CJ Stroud, Caleb Williams, and Lamine Yamal among others) have delivered interest, though this is not a phenomenon exclusive to rookies. Topps’ creativity in other avenues has bled into Topps Now, with Bill Belichick Expos cards sold via the platform as a tie-in with Tom Brady’s inclusion in Bowman Draft. The 1-of-1 signed and inscribed card sold at Goldin earlier this year for $18,910.

Recent product has provided a lift, but past moments have also proven their staying power, even in a crowded landscape. Shohei Ohtani, despite the wide array of “rookie” cards available, accounts for 5 of this year’s top 10 Topps Now card sales at auction, with 4 of those 5 printed during his 2018 campaign.

The playbook. The “chase card” formula that has served the industry well in the post-junk-wax era has been transported to à la carte purchases via Topps Now, though with a notable difference. In some cases, the platform transfers a portion of the hobby’s incredibly rookie-centric interest to distinct moments of significance, creating incremental opportunity where there was previously little.

While the chase cards will deliver the bulk of the secondary market value, collectors uninterested in those values can secure cards of the subjects and moments they’re interested in with little difficulty.

What’s happening Now? Following the US Men’s Basketball Team’s Olympic triumph, a card featuring LeBron James, Stephen Curry, and Kevin Durant was available for sale. One lucky purchaser will receive a redemption for a 1-of-1, triple on-card autographed card. Reportedly, a $100,000 bounty has been placed on the card.

Can Football Finds its Footing?

It’s time to dust off the shoulder pads and lace up those cleats - tomorrow marks three weeks until the 2024 NFL season kicks off.

While the industry that is the National Football League has never been more lucrative, the industry that is the NFL card market is hungry for a catalyst.

Throughout much of 2024, the football collectibles market has resembled an old Western film—set in a barren, desolate landscape where the only movement comes from the occasional tumbleweed drifting by.

We’re not trying to be dramatic. By all accounts, last quarter was the first time in at least nine years without a publicly recorded sale of a PSA 10-graded 1981 Topps Joe Montana Rookie card. The winds of speculation that lifted the modern market between 2020 and 2023 have since died down. Although the league might have its deepest supply of young quarterback talent set to take the field, any recent signs of life within the space have come from those already solidified as Hall of Famers.

There have been bright spots throughout the year. In Q1, Hunt sold more than $540,000 worth of Johnny Unitas memorabilia, while five different pieces of football memorabilia sold for at least $250,000 at auction. In Q2, there were no football-related auction sales above $200,000 but action around the card sector saw a sudden surge. Despite stagnant sales, PSA graded more than 584,000 football cards according to GemRate – good for a 32% increase in activity over 2Q23.

We’re now deep in the heart of Q3 which means football is right around the corner. While we’re not here to say the market is ready to take flight as the opening kick-off approaches, we are happy to report that there are - at the very least - signs of life.

Over the weekend, Robert Edward Auctions sold a gem-mint PSA-graded 1981 Topps Joe Montana card for $58,800. Yes, to be fair, there was once a time when PSA 10 copies of this card were selling for six-figures. But for some perspective on how the REA sale stacked up against recent results, $58,800 is 82% higher than the first PSA 10 auction sale price of 2024 – which settled below $33,000. The REA sale marked the first time in over a year that a PSA 10 Montana has sold for at least $50,000, and it’s the highest price since January 2023.

At Fanatics Collect, their August Premier Auction is currently led by a football jersey. Yes, football stands atop a major auction event. If you’ve followed the space for long enough, you’re well aware of just how rare an occurrence that is.

The jersey is a special specimen and was worn by TB12 during his final season. The game took place in Week 8 of the 2022 campaign and saw Brady throw for 325 yards and a TD – a stat-line later inscribed by the legendary QB on the “12” of the jersey after the game. With Fanatics now at the helm of PWCC, the jersey comes backed with direct authentication from the source – Fanatics – in addition to a signed COA from Brady. The jersey has a current bid of $240,000, and with premium, would be the most expensive Tom Brady jersey sold at auction so far in 2024.

On the block at Goldin is a 2017 Panini Patrick Mahomes Holo Gold RPA that is priced at $207,400 with premium. Again, it’s of course true that this card will sell at a steep discount to its all-time high of $1.1 million, but even at $207,400, that’s $20,000 more than any football card sold for in Q2.

Later this month, Heritage looks positioned to sell the most expensive football wax of the year when they close their historic Summer Platinum Night Auction. The box of 1962 Topps Football is priced above $100K with premium and last sold in 2021 for $120,000.

While pundits debate whether Mahomes can secure a three-peat, we're left wondering when - or if - the Mahomes memorabilia market will reclaim its 2022 heights.