It's all about who you know...

Welcome to this week's Alts & Ends, your lively guide to collectible market happenings. In this edition, we examine the history of venerable portraits, the market for rare cartography, and the strange absence of modern music memorabilia. 

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Left: CHARLES WILSON PEALE, GEORGE WASHINGTON, 1795. OIL ON CANVAS. PROPERTY OF A PRIVATE PENNSYLVANIA COLLECTOR.
Right: REMBRANDT PEALE, GEORGE WASHINGTON, 1795. OIL ON CANVAS. NATIONAL PORTRAIT GALLERY, SMITHSONIAN INSTITUTION; TRANSFER FROM THE NATIONAL GALLERY OF ART; GIFT OF THE A.W. MELLON EDUCATIONAL AND CHARITABLE TRUST, 1942
Photos: Sotheby's

Commander in Countenance

"Your Picture will survive me, and as my mortal remains will perish, my work will live & increase in value — especially in the estimation of those who entertain a just Veneration for the Great original, whose equal among Men has not been found."

Rembrandt Peale's confident declaration to the buyer of one of his George Washington portraits proved quite prescient. While we wouldn't recommend amending it for inclusion in the lot description of your eBay listing for a Victor Wembanyama rookie card ("your PSA 10 will survive me.."), we might still learn something from the prolific portrait painter's conviction.

Peale's work did indeed increase in value, and veneration for George Washington remains prominent, even if we're not in an era of peak patriotism. That reverence is evidenced by three Washington portrait sales in one Americana-charged week, totaling $5 million.

Rembrandt Peale's "porthole" portrait was the least expensive of the three, drawing a healthy $529,200 against an estimate range of $300,000 - $500,000 at Christie's. Peale created at least 79 of the porthole paintings, and this one is the most expensive to sell at auction by a measure of 2X, with the value perhaps improved by Peale's confident letter that accompanied both its original sale and this one. The prior high watermark was $235,500, established at Christie's in 2017. 

But if you're not well-acquainted with the market for Washington portraits, it will surprise you to learn that Rembrandt Peale's work wasn't even the most expensive Washington portrait painted by someone with the name "Peale" to sell last week. Over at Sotheby's, Charles Willson Peale's Washington sold for $1,633,000.

Charles was probably better known to Rembrandt as "father."

C.W. Peale, the father, was distinguished in portraiture, painting Washington from life more than any other artist. While most of his works portrayed him as a military hero, the portrait sold at Sotheby's was the only one captured by Peale during Washington's presidency. The work was commissioned in 1795 by the retiring director of the U.S. Mint, Chancellor Henry William DeSaussure. Peale saw it as an opportunity for his son, Rembrandt, to perform his first commissioned work. Overcome with nerves, Rembrandt insisted his father sit alongside him with a canvas of his own. That's how the C.W. Peale painting at Sotheby's - one of three oil-on-canvas replicas from the session - came to be. 

The $1,633,000 result was well below the $2,000,000 - $3,000,000 estimate. There's little frame of reference for the result, as such a copy hadn't sold publicly since 1954. C.W. Peale's largest auction result came at Christie's back in 2006, when his painting of Washington at Princeton sold for $21,296,000. His portraits are included in prominent museum collections and key U.S. government buildings, the White House among them. 

As for Rembrandt, when you compare his output from that 1795 portrait session to his father's, it looks like a Crayola doodle by comparison. It makes you wonder if that's where Dale Doback got the idea that "it's all about who you know" in Step Brothers. Of course, we're just having fun at Rembrandt's expense.

It was a fine attempt and his first real one, the learnings from which further inspired him to pursue the definitive Washington portrait. His "Equestrian Portrait" and "Washington before Yorktown" works gained acclaim, as did the original painting which he replicated in porthole form. Still, his work did not reach the heights of his father, and his auction record stands at just over $1 million, set back in 2004 for "Washington before Yorktown."

The Peales, however, both came up short of Gilbert Stuart's work last week. Stuart's, a copy of a work commissioned by John Vaughan and thus named a "Vaughan Type," was also based on a 1795 Washington sitting (sidenote: how much time did GW spend getting painted in his lifetime? Days? Weeks?!). There are fourteen such "Vaughan Type" works, and they sit in collections at The National Gallery of Art, The University of Virginia, and Harvard among others. 

This particular example was consigned by The Metropolitan Museum of Art, selling for an impressive $2,833,000 at Christie's against a $1,500,000 - $2,500,000 estimate. Another Vaughan Type, from the collection of Peggy and David Rockefeller, sold at the house for $11,562,500 in 2018. It boasted provenance from John D. Rockefeller back to its original owner, Alexander Scott.

These diligent and spirited efforts to capture the essence of, as Rembrandt Peale put it, "the Great original" remain appreciated and coveted today. Their work lives, surviving all of them and likely all of us. While you might have previously thought Bronny and LeBron James were the popular, collectible father-son duo of the moment, you might want to offer some veneration to the Peales and their portraits. We'll take them over the Bowman U cardboard any day.

Collectible Cartography

They combine art, history, and science in a way that is distinct from every other category we cover.
 
While they exist on our phones and computers today, they once were the teachers of geography, politics, and religion.
 
And now, they’re one of the hottest collectibles markets.
 
Of course, we’re talking about maps. If you’re unfamiliar with the map market... buckle up. It’s time for a crash course.
 
The market itself is diverse and robust, with six-figure sales coming from maps of various origins, regions, eras, and even fantasies. Take for example, the drawing by E.H. Shepard which sold for $568,761 in 2018 to become the most expensive book illustration ever. The illustration, which sold at Sotheby’s London, was an original map of the Hundred Acre Wood.
 
For our less cultured readers, Hundred Acre Wood is the setting and home of the yellow, honey-obsessed bear named Winnie-the-Pooh.
 
Fun fact: The map was the second most expensive lot in that Sotheby’s auction. The most expensive was a hand-written page from Charles Darwin’s Origin of the Species which sold for $648,123. So yes, one of the most impactful scientific manuscripts ever penned barely (pun intended) beat out a map that depicts the stomping grounds of a fictional bear best known for his wobbly demeanor and signature red crop top.

Other notable map sales include the cartography of Abel Buell, who is credited with curating America’s first national map. In 2010, Christie's sold a rare early-edition copy for more than $2 million. So not only do maps command millions, but they can even reach into the multi-millions. 

The most valuable map ever to surface is known simply as Universalis cosmographia secundum Ptholomaei traditionem et Americi Vespucii aliorumque lustrationes. It was acquired in 2001 by the United States Library of Congress at a valuation of $10 million. The massive map features the whole world and is made of one-dozen individual printed sheets. Assembled by Martin Waldseemüller in 1507, it's famous for multiple reasons. Waldseemüller accurately separated the New World from Asia while also being the first to use the name “America” as a description of that new world. 
 
Now that we’ve established just how lively and lucrative the map market is, providing all of you with the opportunity to check your “Learn something new every day” box, let's examine how maps have returned to the forefront of collecting with a string of recent, noteworthy sales.
 
In December, Heritage Auctions sold an original accurate map of Texas, the lone privately-owned copy on the market, for a record-breaking $705,000.

This is where we should note the emphasis on the word accurate, as all of the maps we've highlighted, yes, even the Winnie-the-Pooh map, have had their values influenced by accuracy. There's an entire category of historically inaccurate maps, adding another layer of fun to the world of collectible cartography. 

The accurate Texas map came from an impressive collection of historic documents and manuscripts related to the Lone Star state. In addition to the headline sale, two other maps, one featured within a book of sketches and another compiled by Stephen F. Austin in 1846, reached six figures, selling for $519,000 and $118,750 respectively.

The map mania continued into the new year as Christie’s opened its 2024 auction season with yet another million-dollar map of America.The depiction, illustrated by explorer Samuel de Champlain, provided the first insight into a region known today as the Great Lakes. When the hammer fell earlier this month, the map had realized $1.3 million against a pre-sale estimate of $300,000 - $500,000.
 
There were two maps in that same Christie's auction which both realized $327,600 despite opening with estimates below $200K. One came from the travels of Melchisédech Thévenot, which depicted the Mississippi Valley, and the other was dated 1775, detailing the battle plan of Lexington and Concord. In total, nearly 100 maps were sold in the auction as sales surpassed $11 million across a complete selection of documents, maps, and manuscripts.

The streak of sales will continue through next week as the leading lot in the first Americana and Manuscript auction of 2024 at Sotheby's is... you guessed it... a map! The historic document, which carries an estimate between $300,000 - $500,000, comes from 1755 and details the route taken by General Edward Braddock on his trek towards Fort Duquesne during the French and Indian War. Although the map displays significant wear, it has already attracted activity with a current bid of $220,000 with five days remaining in the event.

 With enough modern collectibles to keep us busy, we rarely find the time to highlight niche markets such as maps. If recent sales tell us anything though, these pieces of historic art seem poised to price comparably to traditional art for years to come.

Roraring Tours, Quiet Markets

This is the condensed version of a larger analysis produced in partnership with The Realest. Check out the full version on the Altan Insights website.

In our Guide to the Music Memorabilia Market, published last month, a recurring theme was the dominance of vintage artists relative to active acts more popular among Millennial and Gen Z audiences. The market composition skews vintage in nature for myriad reasons:

• The music memorabilia market is often driven at the high end by estate sales or single-owner sales from late-career artists. These events offer the strongest provenance, rendering their contents highly desirable. As most currently-popular artists with young demographics are still living (and aren’t in the career retrospective phase that often inspires single-owner sales), much of their reputable material has yet to hit the market.

• Authentication standards in music memorabilia are lacking, so bidders' confidence in the items that reach market is relatively low. Consequently, these items rarely attain headline-making prices.

• Channels of distribution for active artist memorabilia are similarly murky. Aside from one-off charity auction events, artists generally do not avail themselves of opportunities to engage directly with their fanbases and raise money for their causes through memorabilia.

• Fans of "vintage" artists are in their years of peak wealth, rendering them more inclined to spend big on memorabilia. 

The fourth point, however, is partially rebutted by the extreme spend of Taylor Swift and Beyonce fans on concert tickets. Millions of fans spent four-figure ticket prices to see those women live, and yet you’ll be surprised to learn just how non-existent the markets for their memorabilia are. These acts - Taylor, Beyoncé, Harry Styles, Ed Sheeran, and Drake - fill the world’s largest stadiums for multiple nights, but that popularity hasn’t transferred to collecting realms. It seems, though, to be less an issue of demand and more an issue of supply. 

Let's take a closer look at their markets to understand.

Taylor Swift’s fame needs no introduction. Providing one would only fall on already-fatigued ears. Since you already understand the size and scope of her superstardom, you might expect her memorabilia market to be sizable. But total sales volume of Taylor Swift memorabilia at all the auction houses featured in our Guide to the Music Memorabilia Market* was merely $36k in 2023.

That’s it. A pittance. A rounding error for prominent vintage artists.

The reality is that high-quality material simply isn’t out there. The most expensive Taylor Swift item to sell at those auction houses last year was a signed 1989 album, which sold for $5,500 at Gotta Have Rock and Roll. There were no stage-played or worn items available for bidding.

Most Beyoncé memorabilia sales took place between 2016-2019, following her Formation Tour. The only piece of stage-worn memorabilia from that tour to sell for more than $10,000, though, was a signed black felt hat which totaled $27,500 at a 2017 Heritage auction. But even as her Renaissance World Tour grossed $580 billion, more than doubling the Formation Tour, the auction market remained quiet and stage-used items remained absent, with total 2023 auction volume of 20k. The top sale wasn't even a music-related item, but a Foxy Cleopatra costume from Austin Powers in Goldmember, which sold for $15,500 at Propstore.

Surely if commercial success isn't translating to the auction market for Beyoncé, then it isn't translating for anyone.

Harry Styles’ second concert tour, Love On Tour, grossed more than $600 million with north of 5 million tickets sold. Guess what that rabid following spent on Harry Styles memorabilia and collectibles at auction houses of note in 2023.

$1,341.

We’re not missing any commas, nor are we missing any zeroes. You’d be hard-pressed to find a larger incongruence between a person or entity with a large following and the associated collectibles spend. Make it make sense!  

Ed Sheeran, the most followed artist on all of Spotify at one point, generated just under $68k in auction volume in 2023, $57k of which is attributed to two Tudor watches made for his Divide Tour. And then there's Drake. Drake spent just over $1 million on Tupac's crown ring at Sotheby's, and it's safe to say the rapper spends more at auction than is spent on his memorabilia: Drake memorabilia and collectibles volume totaled $18k for the year.

These are the results of only five artists from a mere selection of auction houses (albeit the ones that do the most music memorabilia business), but the findings are clear: the collectibles market for the megastars of modern music is woefully underdeveloped. If these are the volumes for the megastars, imagine what that says about the market for artists of lesser popularity. 

Given the size of other collecting categories and the tools available to better engage with fanbases through social media, it seems odd that we would wait for an artist’s estate sale to see more active markets for their memorabilia and collectibles. Supply of desirable assets is limited, and large, global fanbases have been given little reason to take interest. It’s possible that the same means of achieving auction success in other categories won’t work here - those methods haven’t always cultivated engaged, female audiences, and many of these fanbases skew female.

It’s hard, though, to look at the size of following for Harry Styles and his $1,000 sales volume and come to any conclusion other than this one: the modern music space is one of the most untapped opportunities in collectibles. 

*Included auction houses: Bonham's, Christie's, Goldin, Gotta Have Rock and Roll, GWS, Heritage, Iconic, Julien's, Propstore, RR Auction, Sotheby's

This in-depth research report on the Sports Collectibles Market from Altan Insights examines auction sales, market performance, and much more to understand how the market held up across categories, eras, and sports. Game-worn vs. cards. Vintage vs. modern. Physical vs. digital.

Inside, you'll find:

• A detailed analysis of auction activity and the types of assets selling best

• Card market performance and commentary, with subcategory nuance thoroughly explained

• An update on the headline-making game-worn memorabilia market

• Fascinating and relevant market trends in each sport

• Records, grading population updates, ticket market analysis, digital collectible details, and much more!

Whether you're a collector, investor, speculator, or industry professional, the information needed to keep your finger on the pulse of the sports collectibles market is here, captured and made digestible.

Click the link below to receive your free copy of the report today! 

The demand for Princess Diana fashion at auction remains robust. And those who were early to the iconic wardrobe are reaping handsome rewards.

Take this cocktail dress, for example. It sold for $34,500 as part of a charity auction of Diana's dresses at Christie's back in 1997. The event grossed $3.3 million in total across 80 lots.

Last week - 27 years later - Julien's auctioned the same dress for a final price of $325,000 with buyer's premium, outperforming an estimate range of $100,000 - $200,000. Over more than a quarter of a century, it nearly 10X'd in value, appreciating at a rate of close to 9% per year. 

It doesn't quite take The Crown for the most iconic and valuable Princess Diana sale, but for a piece that wasn't the subject of any famous photograph, it's a result worthy of fanfare nonetheless.

Did you know that Altan Insights offers consulting services?! 

The secret's out now. Leveraging our proprietary data, our best-in-class collectible market analytical abilities, and the content you've grown to know and love, we’ve worked with top marketplaces, investors, banks, collectors, and more on bespoke projects ranging from tailored solutions to collectibles-based queries to conducting comprehensive market analyses.

Whether you're seeking market analysis, content assistance, valuation services, or something else entirely, don't hesitate to reach out. We'd love to hear from you, and we look forward to finding a way to work together.

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Also on the slate:

• Closing 1/25 - Sotheby's International Player Edit | Capsule Collection

• Closing 1/28 - Lelands 2024 Winter Pop-Up

• Closing 1/29 - Sotheby's Fine Manuscript and Printed Americana

• Closing 1/22 - 2/13 - ComicLink Focused Auction

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